Growth Analysis

Ghana & Uganda — March 2026 (6-month trend: Oct 2025 – Mar 2026)

Updated: March 31, 2026 · Data: Snowflake (through Mar 31), CleverTap (through Mar 22) · Fido Analytics

Executive Summary

Key metrics across onboarding, KYC, lending, marketing, and savings for the current bi-weekly period.

81,790

GH Signups (Mar)
Full month

+6.9% vs Feb (76,494)

25.2%

GH Signup→Disb Rate
20,620 first disbursements

Up from 25.0% (Feb)

20,591

UG Signups (Mar)
Full month

+8.4% vs Feb (18,999)

17.8%

UG Signup→Disb Rate
3,670 first disbursements

Up from 14.3% (Feb)

Chenosis scaling up in Ghana: Launched Jan 2026. IN_APP at 58.1% success (4,477/7,709 biweekly) — strong and improving. USSD volume surged from 7 (Feb) to 1,159 (Mar) but success rate dropped to 41.4%. Margins steady at 43.5%. Chenosis IN_APP is now the higher-performing channel.

CAC spiking in both markets: Ghana CAC hit $6.48 (Feb), up 35% from Jan. Uganda doubled from $6.26 to $12.84 in 3 months.

Savings at GHS 9.47M — promo early signal positive: Total balance at GHS 9.47M. "Without Loan" savers surged to 26.5% of new accounts. Post-promo (Mar 9) weekly retention trending up: 53.3% → 60.1% over 3 weeks (+13.1pp vs baseline).

1. Onboarding Funnel

Monthly conversion rates and volumes for Ghana and Uganda: Signups → KYC → First Fido Score ≥250 → First Disbursement (Oct 2025 – Mar 2026).

GH Ghana Conversion Rate Trends

Monthly | KYC/Signup, FS≥250/Signup, Disb/Signup

UG Uganda Conversion Rate Trends

Monthly | KYC/Signup, FS≥250/Signup, Disb/Signup

Absolute Volumes — Ghana vs Uganda

Monthly registrations and first disbursements side-by-side

Onboarding Funnel Over Time

GH Ghana Full Funnel — Monthly Volumes

Oct 2025 – Mar 2026 | Signups → KYC → FS ≥250 → First Disbursement

UG Uganda Full Funnel — Monthly Volumes

Oct 2025 – Mar 2026 | Signups → KYC → FS ≥250 → First Disbursement

Registrations vs LN0 Disbursements

GH Ghana Reg vs First Disbursements

Monthly | Volumes + Conversion Ratio

UG Uganda Reg vs First Disbursements

Monthly | Volumes + Conversion Ratio

Ghana: KYC is the biggest cliff. ~54% of signups complete KYC. Of those, ~56% get a Fido Score ≥250, and ~82% of eligible users take their first loan. KYC → FS Eligible is where the most volume is lost.

Uganda: KYC→FS Eligible is the tightest bottleneck. Only ~35% of KYC completers get FS ≥250 (vs Ghana’s 56%). But once eligible, 87% disburse — higher than Ghana.

2. KYC Detailed Funnel

62.1%

GH KYC Completion Rate

+3.5pp vs previous

52.8%

UG KYC Completion Rate

+2.8pp vs previous

ID Capture

Biggest Bottleneck
~25–30% drop-off

30,543

GH KYC Succeeded (Current)

Up from 27,373

KYC Funnel Comparison

GH Ghana KYC Funnel — Current vs Previous

Mar 9–22 vs Feb 23–Mar 8 | Step-over-step conversion

UG Uganda KYC Funnel — Current vs Previous

Mar 9–22 vs Feb 23–Mar 8

Step-over-Step Conversion — Ghana vs Uganda

Current period comparison

Biggest drop-off: KYC Start → ID Front Capture. Ghana loses 24.6%, Uganda loses 29.9%. ID scanning/OCR is the #1 friction point.

KYC Provider Analysis

61.7%

GH Chenosis IN_APP
5,602 / 9,080 (biweekly)

Down from 64.8% prev period

39.2%

GH Chenosis USSD
359 / 915 (biweekly)

Launched Mar 12 — 0→915 attempts

43.5%

GH Margins (IN_APP)
18,051 / 41,459

Down from 45.5% prev

87.9%

UG NITA Avg Success
9-day avg (Mar 14–22)

GH Provider Success Rate Trend

Monthly | Chenosis USSD vs Chenosis IN_APP vs Margins

GH Chenosis USSD Volume Share

Monthly | Chenosis USSD as % of total KYC attempts

GH USSD vs IN_APP (Bi-Weekly)

Mar 9–22 vs Feb 23–Mar 8

UG Daily Provider Volumes & NITA Success

Mar 14–22 | Stacked bars + success rate

KYC Provider Updates

Uganda

Chenosis KYC A/B Test (Phase 2)

MTN clients who fail NITA get Chenosis USSD fallback (treatment) vs no fallback (control). Running since Mar 16. Treatment shows +6.9pp lift (62.6% vs 55.8%) but not yet significant (p=0.16). 71% of treatment passes via Chenosis. Median verification: 1 min (treatment) vs 5 min (control).

62.6%

Treatment

55.8%

Control

+6.9pp

Lift (p=0.16)

1 min

Median Time

Ghana

Chenosis Scaling Up + USSD Launched Mar 12

Chenosis IN_APP at 61–65% success rate since Jan launch — consistently outperforming Margins (44–47%). USSD launched Mar 12: spiked to 166 verifications on Mar 16, then stabilized at 30–50/day. Monthly: 1,130 USSD attempts, 462 succeeded (40.9%). USSD is 3.3% of Chenosis volume — IN_APP remains dominant at ~21.6K/mo.

61.7%

Chenosis IN_APP

39.2%

Chenosis USSD

44.9%

Margins

3.3%

USSD Share

Selfie Transform Recovery A/B Test

NEW — Launched Mar 30. Users who fail Margins liveness get automatic image transforms (mirror, rotate, crop, enhance) to recover. Treatment = transforms enabled, Control = normal SELFIE_FAIL. Feature-flagged via SELFIE_TRANSFORM_ENABLED.

+7.0pp

GH KYC Pass Rate Lift
Treatment vs Control

74.6% vs 67.6%

GH Users Recovered
by transforms (Day 1)

42.9% of treatment users

451

GH Users in Experiment
244 control / 207 treatment

~12 hours of data

mirror

Top Transform
15.9% recovery rate

Mirror + rotations = 53% of wins

GH Control vs Treatment — KYC Pass Rate

Users who failed initial liveness check | Mar 30 (Day 1)

GH Treatment Outcome Breakdown

177 treatment users with verification results

GH Top Winning Transformations

Number of users recovered per transform type | Only transforms with ≥2 wins shown

GH Transform Recovery Rate

% of users recovered when each transform was attempted | Top 10

Ghana

Selfie Transform Recovery (Day 1 Results)

Treatment shows +7.0pp lift (74.6% vs 67.6%) among users who initially fail Margins liveness. 76 users directly recovered by image transforms — they would have received SELFIE_FAIL without the feature. Mirror + rotate (±15°) account for 53% of all recoveries. 3 transforms (clahe_bright_mirror, mirror_clahe, persp_up) have zero recoveries — candidates for removal to reduce latency.

74.6%

Treatment

67.6%

Control

+7.0pp

Lift

Users Saved

3. Nano Loans Performance

3,236

GH Total Nano Loans
Since Mar 2 launch

+44% W-o-W growth (W3 vs W2)

2,495

GH Unique Borrowers
1.30 loans per borrower

186 graduated to Tier A_01

GHS 196K

GH Total Disbursed
Avg ticket GHS 60.6

Ticket rising with graduations

99.7%

GH Repayment Rate
Only 5 in arrears of 1,768

Exceptional early performance

Daily Nano Disbursements

Mar 2–30 | Daily loan count with trend

Weekly Volume & Avg Ticket

Full weeks | Bar = loans, Line = avg ticket (GHS)

Loan Ladder Progression

Tier distribution of all nano loans

Repayment Status

All 3,236 nano loans by current state

Nano loans scaling rapidly: From 74 loans on launch day (Mar 2) to 144 on Mar 30 — nearly 2x daily volume. 94.2% of loans are at starter tier A_00 (GHS 60), with 186 borrowers (5.7%) already graduating to A_01 (GHS 75). Repayment rate of 99.7% is exceptional — only 5 of 1,768 matured loans in arrears.

4. CAC & Marketing

$6.44

GH Feb CAC (cost/L0)
Mar: $5.71

Up from $4.69 (Jan)

$10.00

UG Feb CAC (cost/L0)
Mar: $7.51

Up from $7.89 (Jan)

33.6%

GH Best L0 Rate
MTN_SMS_Blast

Best KYC rate too (67.6%)

42.7%

UG Best L0 Rate
SafeBoda-Riders (323)

Exceptional conversion

GH Ghana CAC Trend (cost/L0)

Monthly | Total cost / L0 disbursements (USD)

UG Uganda CAC Trend (cost/L0)

Monthly | Total cost / L0 disbursements (USD)

CAC Deep Dive — What’s Driving the Increase?

GH Total Marketing Spend

Monthly spend (USD) | Oct 25–Mar 26

GH CPI / CPK / CAC Trends

CPI = cost/install, CPK = cost/KYC, CAC = cost/L0

GH Funnel Conversion Rate Trends

Install→Signup, Signup→KYC, KYC→Disbursement

GH Dec had highest CAC at $6.89 (cost/L0) — low L0 volume (16,965) against $117K spend. Feb spiked again to $6.44 with $123K spend and only 19,138 L0. Jan was the most efficient month at $4.69.

Cost methodology: CAC = total cost / L0 disbursements. Oct–Dec costs from Kochava digital spend, Jan–Mar from actual marketing budget. CPI = cost/installs, CPK = cost/KYC verified.

Campaign Performance (Mar 9–22)

GH Ghana Top 10 Campaigns — Full Funnel

Signups → KYC → L0 → Savings

GH Campaign Conversion Rates

KYC/Signup, L0/KYC, Savings/KYC per campaign

UG Uganda Top 10 Campaigns — Full Funnel

Signups → KYC → L0 → Savings

UG Campaign Conversion Rates

KYC/Signup, L0/KYC per campaign

GH User Acquisition Source

Source distribution

GH Source Detail (excl. Organic)

Identified attribution sources

5. Savings

All data from SEMANTIC_LAYER.SAVINGS_ACCOUNTS_INFO & SEMANTIC_LAYER.SAVINGS_ALL_TRANSACTIONS. Updated Mar 30, 2026.

39,464

Active Accounts
Deposit > 20 GHS (of 94,235)

41.9% active rate

GHS 9.47M

Total Balance
+ Interest Accrued

Crossed 9M milestone

GHS 238

Avg Balance / Active
Without Loan: GHS 384

9,497

First-Time Depositors (Mar)
76.0% of 12,490 new accounts

Down from 10,203 (Feb)

2,993

Returning Savers (Mar)
24.0% of new accounts

Up from 2,717 (Feb) — +10.2%

2.51%

Conversion from Base
42,608 active clients / 1.70M KYC

26.5%

Savers First %
No L0 or before L0

Up from 10.4% (Oct)

7,421

Closed Accounts (Mar)

Up from 6,304 (Feb)

Savings Group Breakdown

Group	Total Accounts	Active	Active %	Total Balance (GHS)	Avg Balance	Balance Share
After Loan	76,522	31,382	41.0%	6,553,080	208.82	69.6%
Without Loan	13,796	6,377	46.2%	2,450,521	384.27	26.0%
Before Loan	3,917	1,705	43.5%	406,183	238.23	4.3%
Total	94,235	39,464	41.9%	9,409,784	238.44	100%

Savings Feature Updates

Savings

Savings Promotion A/B Test (CASH vs TOPUP)

Launched Mar 9 (v4.40). CASH reward outperforms TOPUP at 11.9% vs 6.7% completion. Post-launch retention trending up: 53.3% → 60.1% over 3 weeks. 376 promotion rewards issued (195 CASH, 181 TOPUP).

11.9%

CASH Completion

6.7%

TOPUP Completion

+13.1pp

Retention Lift

376

Rewards Issued

Savings

Save for a Goal A/B Test

Goal screens don’t reduce conversion — both at 11.7%. Users who engage with goal-setting are 3x more committed (35.7% account creation).

11.7%

Both Groups

35.7%

Goal Engagers

Commitment Lift

Transaction Trends

Deposits vs Withdrawals

Monthly | Dual bars + net flow % overlay

Net Deposit Flow

Monthly | Deposits minus Withdrawals

New Accounts: First-Time vs Returning

Monthly | Stacked: first-time depositors + returning savers

New Accounts vs Closures

Monthly | Net account growth

Returning Saver Share

Monthly | % new accounts from returning savers

New Accounts by Group

Stacked: After Loan, Before Loan, Without Loan

“Without Loan” Share of New Accounts

Monthly | Independent savings adoption

CASH Reward

11.9%

Completion Rate | 84 enrolled

TOPUP (Airtime) Reward

6.7%

Completion Rate | 89 enrolled

Savings Promotion Funnel (All Users)

View → Click → Amount View → Amount Action → Account Created

CASH vs TOPUP Backend Status

Active, Cancelled, Completed, Disbursing

Completion Rate Comparison

CASH vs TOPUP (Airtime)

Save for a Goal A/B Test

Goal Group (v4.40)

11.7%

997 / 8,492 | 6-step funnel

Control (other versions)

11.7%

3,160 / 26,969 | 4-step funnel

Goal Group Funnel (v4.40)

6-step with goal-setting screens

Control Funnel (other versions)

Standard 4-step without goal screens

Goal Group Step-over-Step Analysis

Conversion between each consecutive step

Detailed A/B Results — CleverTap Funnels

CASH Promotion Funnel

Promo Card → Amount → Deposit → Active

TOPUP Promotion Funnel

Promo Card → Amount → Deposit → Active

Goal Group Funnel

Amount View → Deposit (users with goal event)

No-Goal Control Funnel

Without goal event in same period

Savings promotion launched Mar 9, 2026 (v4.40 only). Comparing account creation and retention before vs after launch. All data from SEMANTIC_LAYER.SAVINGS_ACCOUNTS_INFO. Note: post-promo cohorts are younger (0–3 weeks), so some retention lift reflects recency.

Pre-Promo (Oct 1 – Mar 8)

43.2%

Active Retention | 2,749 avg weekly new

Post-Promo (Mar 9 – Mar 29)

56.3%

Active Retention | 2,717 avg weekly new

+13.1pp

Active Retention Lift
43.2% → 56.3%

~Flat

Avg Weekly New Accounts
2,749 → 2,717

31,936

Cumulative Active (Mar)
Up from 3,381 (Oct)

9.4x growth in 6 months

376

Promotion Rewards (since Mar 9)
195 CASH + 181 TOPUP

Cumulative Active Accounts Growth

Monthly | Active accounts (all) from SAVINGS_ACCOUNTS_INFO

Weekly Active Retention Rate

% of new accounts still active | Pre vs Post promo

Metric	Pre-Promo (Oct 1 – Mar 8)	Post-Promo (Mar 9 – Mar 29)	Change
Total New Accounts	63,240	8,151	—
Avg Weekly New	2,749	2,717	~Flat
Still Active (as of now)	27,350	4,586	—
Active Retention Rate	43.2%	56.3%	+13.1pp

“Without Loan” savers surging: 10.4% (Oct) → 26.5% (Mar) of new accounts — 2.5x increase. Strong independent savings adoption beyond lending.

CASH reward outperforms TOPUP 1.8x (11.9% vs 6.7% completion). Lower cancellation too (22.6% vs 27.0%). Recommend full rollout.

Promotion early signal — retention trending up: Post-launch weekly retention rising: 53.3% (Mar 9) → 55.2% (Mar 16) → 60.1% (Mar 23). Only 3 weeks of data so far — monitor for sustained lift vs recency effect.

Goal screens don’t hurt conversion (both 11.7%), but engaged goal-setters convert at 35.7% — 3x the baseline.

Growth Analysis

Executive Summary

1. Onboarding Funnel

GH Ghana Conversion Rate Trends

UG Uganda Conversion Rate Trends

Absolute Volumes — Ghana vs Uganda

Onboarding Funnel Over Time

GH Ghana Full Funnel — Monthly Volumes

UG Uganda Full Funnel — Monthly Volumes

Registrations vs LN0 Disbursements

GH Ghana Reg vs First Disbursements

UG Uganda Reg vs First Disbursements

2. KYC Detailed Funnel

KYC Funnel Comparison

GH Ghana KYC Funnel — Current vs Previous

UG Uganda KYC Funnel — Current vs Previous

Step-over-Step Conversion — Ghana vs Uganda

KYC Provider Analysis

GH Provider Success Rate Trend

GH Chenosis USSD Volume Share

GH USSD vs IN_APP (Bi-Weekly)

UG Daily Provider Volumes & NITA Success

KYC Provider Updates

Chenosis KYC A/B Test (Phase 2)

Chenosis Scaling Up + USSD Launched Mar 12

Selfie Transform Recovery A/B Test

GH Control vs Treatment — KYC Pass Rate

GH Treatment Outcome Breakdown

GH Top Winning Transformations

GH Transform Recovery Rate

Selfie Transform Recovery (Day 1 Results)

3. Nano Loans Performance

Daily Nano Disbursements

Weekly Volume & Avg Ticket

Loan Ladder Progression

Repayment Status

4. CAC & Marketing

GH Ghana CAC Trend (cost/L0)

UG Uganda CAC Trend (cost/L0)

CAC Deep Dive — What’s Driving the Increase?

GH Total Marketing Spend

GH CPI / CPK / CAC Trends

GH Funnel Conversion Rate Trends

Campaign Performance (Mar 9–22)

GH Ghana Top 10 Campaigns — Full Funnel

GH Campaign Conversion Rates

UG Uganda Top 10 Campaigns — Full Funnel

UG Campaign Conversion Rates

GH User Acquisition Source

GH Source Detail (excl. Organic)

5. Savings

Savings Group Breakdown

Savings Feature Updates

Savings Promotion A/B Test (CASH vs TOPUP)

Save for a Goal A/B Test

Transaction Trends

Deposits vs Withdrawals

Net Deposit Flow

New Accounts: First-Time vs Returning

New Accounts vs Closures

Returning Saver Share

New Accounts by Group

“Without Loan” Share of New Accounts

Savings Promotion A/B Test (CASH vs TOPUP)

Savings Promotion Funnel (All Users)

CASH vs TOPUP Backend Status

Completion Rate Comparison

Save for a Goal A/B Test

Goal Group Funnel (v4.40)

Control Funnel (other versions)

Goal Group Step-over-Step Analysis

Detailed A/B Results — CleverTap Funnels

CASH Promotion Funnel

TOPUP Promotion Funnel

Goal Group Funnel

No-Goal Control Funnel

Promotion Impact on Active Savings Accounts

Cumulative Active Accounts Growth

Weekly Active Retention Rate